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The Confident Trader
Joe tells his
friend, "I'm staying out of the markets for a few days."
"Why?" asks Tom. "I can't trade under these conditions.
I'm going to wait for the markets to change," answers
Joe. "What a lack of confidence," Tom taunts. "Maybe,
but I'd rather be safe than sorry," Joe retorts. Does
Joe actually have a lack of confidence? Just because Joe
doesn't want to trade under market conditions that are
not suited to his method does not mean that he lacks
confidence. He may be showing a sense of heightened
self-awareness. It is possible that he is acknowledging
that he lacks the skill to trade under current
conditions and that he would rather prudently stand
aside than jump impulsively into market conditions that
he can't trade. Sometimes, a high level of confidence
can be defined as realistically knowing what you can and
cannot do. According to this definition, how confident
are you?
Many people
confuse true self-confidence with false self-confidence.
The confusion arises when high self-confidence is
equated with high levels of ability, like the popular
stereotype of a skilled, seasoned trader. A seasoned,
master trader knows how to trade in a variety of market
conditions, and thus, has high trading ability. He or
she may have both high levels of skill and confidence in
that he or she has mastered a variety of market
conditions and he or she is quite confident that should
these conditions arise, there is a high probability of
success. Many people mistakenly think that there is only
one way to be confident. They believe that it is
essential to master every possibility and bask in the
knowledge that they are omnipotent. Working under this
assumption, some novice traders are afraid to
acknowledge their limitations. They believe that
admitting their limitations is like saying they have low
self-confidence. They create a false sense of
self-confidence to quell their inadequacy, believing
that they can trade under market conditions that they
can't possibly know how to trade. The image of the
accomplished master trader who is both confident and
skilled is only one exemplar of self-confidence,
however. An alternative definition is having the
experience and awareness to know what you can and cannot
do. In other words, confident traders know themselves so
well that they know when and how to trade but also know
when not to.
Consider the
conversation between Joe and Tom further. What if we
discovered that Joe had tried repeatedly to trade under
current market conditions and failed time after time? He
didn't sulk and run from the challenge. He tried to
master it, but found he could not. Let's also suppose
that Joe discovered that there were many market
conditions where he could trade profitably. In Joe's
case, he has learned when he can make a profit and when
he can't. Confidence is often a matter of self-awareness
of what you can and cannot do, and Joe has achieved this
level of self-knowledge. Think of the advantages. He
doesn't waste any time trading under market conditions
where he can't make a profit. He doesn't waste
psychological energy beating himself up for not being
able to trade under all possible market conditions. He
merely waits for his own personal ideal conditions, and
devotes all his time and energy to trading during those
times. While other traders are wasting time, energy, and
resources unsuccessfully trying to trade markets where
they just can't trade, Joe is trading profitably. He is
trading in a peak performance mindset at optimal times.
Many people may disagree with Joe's approach, believing
that by standing aside, they may miss out on important
market moves, or feel that they are stagnating. There
may be some merit to those arguments. After all, you
need to push yourself to the limits and trade in a
variety of market conditions to become a master trader.
However, there's virtue in staying humble. If you know
your limits, stay within them, and do the best you can
do with what you have, in all likelihood, you'll be a
success. And considering that less than 5% of novice
traders make it into the elite group of traders who
achieve enduring financial success, trading at your own
pace and during optimal times may put you with the
champions rather than with the masses who find they must
feed their accounts at the end of the month to prevent
their closure.
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