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This completes my
discussion of the charts and I am going to answer some of your questions.
Questions and Answers on the TLB-100 Trade
Question: Are you only
looking short because price is below the 34 ema?
Answer: It is not so
much because price is below the 34 ema, but because the 34 is pointing
down. The 34 is primarily for direction only. Price is only relative to the 34. I
really don't suggest most people use that.
Question: Please
confirm where the TLB-100 starts?
Answer: To get
a TLB-100, it must always start from below -100 or above +100.
It must then
cross the 100 in the opposite direction, and subsequently come back through.
Question: Would you
clarify where the TLB pattern starts and ends?
Answer: The TLB-100
starts at one 100 line and goes to the opposite 100 line and then comes back
through it. The 100 line is the only thing that counts.
Question: Do you wait
to short when both the TLB and 100 cross happen?
Answer: I wait for
both. When the CCI goes through one of the 100 lines, that is a pretty
powerful move and you have to make sure it is not just a temporary move (as
shown by the re-cross in the opposite direction) and does not just keep on going
Question: Do you enter
at the cross of the TLB and the close of the bar?
Answer: Yes.
Question: Is your entry
at the TLB cross or the zero line cross?
Answer: Once it has
come back through the 100s, the minute it crosses the trend line that is the
trigger.
Question: If the CCI
goes well past 100 before hooking, so you are at a High from Extreme, then no
TLB-100 trade?
Answer: I will take
them. I don't care if they go to 250, as long as they come back through the 100
before the 7th bar starts to print.
Question: If the CCI
gets to 200, is the TLB still valid
Answer: Yes. As long
the 100 cross occurs before the 7th bar starts to print
Question: If CCI
crosses +/- 200 does it invalidate the TLB rules?
Answer: No that is
fine as long as the CCI crosses back below the 100 line and crosses the trend
line before the end of the close of the 6th bar.
Question: Are the exit
rules you use in the TLB-100 trades the same as Classic CCI?
Answer: Yes the exit
rules are the same as Classic CCI, or if I hit my objective. If I hit my
objective, I will get out.
Question: If the peak
is at 100 but CCI does not go above the 100 line and come back through it is it
OK to take the trade?
Answer: Sure. It is a
ZLR at that point and I love ZLRs that approach the 100 line. They often do
much better than the ZLRs that only approach the zero line. I love ZLRs
that get close to the 100.
Question: When
considering the TLB-100, does it make a difference how close or far away price
is to the 34 ema?
Answer: That is a
very good question. It is very true that the best TLB-100 trades occur when
price is closing in on the 34 ema. If price is away from the 34 I will take the
trade, but I really do like it better if price is closer to the 34.
Question: Is the angle
of the 34 ema important for this pattern?
Answer: The angle of
the 34 ema is a requisite for this trade. Yes, that is correct. I've used my
laptop to show this rather than my usual trading charts. On my big trading
charts, that 34 ema would be on a very good slope
Question: Any specific
degree of slope on the 34?
Answer: I usually
tell people that I like a 30 degree slope. I also qualify that because the
TLB
has a tendency to flatten out just before an entry. So if the TLB has been
sloping nicely, then flattens out for 2-3 bars - that is OK. If the flattening
extends as long as 5 or 6 bars I will not take the trade.
Question: Would you
describe your requirements for 34 ema slope?
Answer: I tell new
traders that I like a 30 degree slope on the 34 ema. If I had my regular charts
up, you would see that they have close to a 30 degree slope. Keep in mind, on
the entry bar of a CCI signal, the 34 has a tendency to flatten out. If it is
flattened out only a little bit for only 1 or 2 bars, I can ignore it. If that
flattening out extends to 5 or 6 bars, then I consider it is not tradable at
that point and it is a choppy market.
Question: How do you
evaluate the slope business?
Answer: I eyeball the
chart as I have considerable experience doing that. If you have a problem with
that, get a protractor or a carpenter's angle tool and put it up on your screen
until you learn to recognize the slope. It's the only way I know how to do it.
I know everyone's ema is going to be different based on the price scale they are
using and size of the chart. The idea is to see a definite trend -
whether it is 28 degrees or 34 degrees doesn't make any difference
Question: Do you have
any tricks for evaluation of the 34 ema?
Answer: I have a
little trick for some of you that have trouble with the 34 ema slope. Get
yourself a protractor and cut a 3 X 5 card with a 30 degree angle and then hold
the card up to your screen to see if you recognize a 30 degree slope. You want
to remember that the key point is to be able to see a trend designated by the 34
ema - not to be able to tell precisely what degree slope the 34 is.
Question: Is it correct
that the correct slope on the 34 ema on a chart would be 4:00 on your
screen for a down trend and 2:00 for an uptrend?
Answer: Yes, the 4:00
direction for a downtrend and 2:00 for an uptrend would fit the 30 degrees slope
on the 34 ema Here is another little trick if you don't want to cut 3X5 cards
for a 30 degree measurement on your screen. Just take your cross hairs on your
34 and you can guess the angle pretty well just doing that.
Question: I suggest we
use the 25 lsma (least squared moving average) the same way you use the 3 ema to measure the accelerating 34.
Answer: I
don't use
the 25 lsma so I don't know how it acts and reacts, so I really cannot comment
on that. Knowing what the lsma is, I suspect that if you have a 25 lsma on
there that you would get the same kind of information that I get on the 34 ema,
in terms of rate of acceleration
Question: As the signal
is taken above the zero line as a short, is this considered a with the trend
signal?
Answer There is
nothing wrong with taking a ZLR above the zero line. As a matter of fact, I
like them from above the zero line better. As far as the TLB-100 goes, if it is
taken with the direction of the 34 ema i.e. with the trend, then I think it is
the best trade a beginner can take.
Question: What do you
do when you decide to do a ZLR with no TLB and not wait for the bump and trend
line?
Answer: On a ZLR I
have no requirements other than it hooks and is with the trend (34 ema). I
don't care about trend lines or anything. As long as it is with the trend
and the CCI-14 hooks within +/- 50, then I will take it.
Question: Have you
noticed that the slope of the TLBs is not as steep as the ZLR because of
the pullback of prices to the ema?
Answer: No
- there
were several today of only 1 bar long on the euro today?
Question: What is the
yellow moving average on your chart?
Answer: That is a 3
period moving average. I don't really use it in the trade It is there because
it is a quick way for me to see if the 34 ema is accelerating. If the yellow 3
moving average starts to move away from the 34 ema I know that the 34 is
accelerating without having to measure it. It is not used for trading. The
exact MA is not that important since what I use it for is to indicate whether
the rate of change on the 34 ema is increasing or decreasing.
Question: What is the
yellow line and how do you use it?
Answer: The yellow
line is a fast ema (3 period ema) and it's only purpose is to let me know if the
slope of the 34 ema rate of change is increasing or decreasing. If the yellow
line pulls away from the 34ema I know that the rate of change on the 34 is
increasing. That is the only purpose for it being there.
Question: You said 7
bars before CCI breaks through the trend line or the 100 line or is it both?
Answer: It is both.
It has to break through both the 100 line AND the trend line before the 7th
bar starts to print. There are 2 requirements that have to be met
Question: Can you
repeat the 7th bar rule?
Answer: Yes. You must
enter the TLB-100 before the 7th bar STARTS to print. Once the 7th
bar starts to print, the TLB trade is negated
Question: Do you mean
the beginning of the 7th bar or the end of 7th bar
printing?
Answer: The criterion
is the START of the 7th bar printing. Alternatively you can say the
limit is the end of the 6th bar. Once the 6th bar closes,
it is all over.
Question: It sounds
like the 6th bar rule of the TLB-100 is a modification of Woodie's
six bar rule for trend change?
Answer: You are
correct. It is Woodie's 6 bar rule for trend. The TLB has to be completed before
the end of the 6th bar and the 7th bar starts to print.
Question: What do I do
if I make the trade before the 7th bar and then the 7th
bar prints?
Answer: I can't take
the trade unless the 100 has been broken on the way back and the trend line has
been broken also before the 7th bar prints, so it would not make any
difference. The 7th bar has no bearing once the 2 conditions of the
trade have been met (coming back through 100 and breaking the trend line).
Question: Are these
usually borderline 5 to 6 bars almost going to a counter trend trade?
Answer: Yes. Most the
time they are. This all has to happen before the 7th bar starts
to print. I would say more than half the time you are up to the 5th
or 6th bar Before the CCI breaks back through the 100 line and the
trend line. Once in awhile you will get one that is 1-2 bars long, but not
often. We did have some of those on the Euro today.
Question: If you take a
TLB-100 as a short and the CCI doesn't cross the zero line before the 6th
bar, and therefore the trade is now long, do you stay in the trade if the CCI
is still heading down?
Answer: Let me make
sure I understand. I don't think I understand your question. The zero line has
nothing to do with the TLB-100 trade. Because it has to break a trend line and
come back through the 100, the CCI is always heading down in a short trade. I
can't picture the situation.
Question: What would
have kept you in the short at around 13:05 when the CCI hooked against you?
Answer: Really
nothing. It was time to get out when the CCI hooked against me. You will notice
that it was not that long later when we got another one. You got to do it again
at even a better price than where we got out. When the CCI tells you to get out,
it is time to get out
Question: Can you give
entry price and stop on the last trade?
Answer: Yes, hang on
a minute. The entry price on that last TLB-100 which occurred at 13:54...We entered at 646.10 and my stop was at 646.50. So I had a 4 tick risk on
that trade. For that 4 tick risk, I had the opportunity to pull out 20 ticks.
So my risk to reward ratio on that trade was a possible loss of 4 ticks and I
had the opportunity to take up to 20 ticks. As a matter of fact when the CCI
hooked and closed at 644.30 it was worth 18 ticks. You got 18 ticks before the
hook on the CCI-14.
Question: You mentioned
after getting a better price after CCI hooks up through the ZL? What would get
you in again?
Answer: If you will
recall, there was another TLB-100 right after that one. I covered for around 16
to 17 ticks and then just a few bars later we got to take another TLB-100
that ran beautifully. That one was pretty straight forward
Question: Would you
have taken the ZLR signal short around 8:59 if you had not been in the market.
Answer: No. The CCI
signal closed below the -100 line and that is not a valid signal to me
Question: Did you
have any concerns on the 3rd TLB-100 today?
Answer: On the 3rd
trade, I was real cautious because it had pierced the 34 which I say I don't
use; but I can't help noticing it, but more importantly the 34 had started to
flatten out. However, it did not flatten out but for 3 bars and 3 bars is not
enough to keep me out of the trade.
Question: Did the 2nd
TLB-100 trade bother you since price breached the 34 line for a couple of bars
just before entry?
Answer: Nope. I am
not using the 34 relative to price. I use it only for direction. Price can
penetrate the 34 without changing the slope of the 34 and that does not bother
me at all. The 34 for me is only used for direction
Question: Was the 11:30
TLB valid?
Answer: Yes it was.
It occurred before the 7th bar started to print. They are OK if they
occur before the 7th bar starts to print. It is good up to the end of
the 6th bar.
Question: Was the 9:30
TLB a valid buy?
Answer: You caught me
on that one. I did not see that one. Yes it is valid. If I had seen it, I would
have taken it. The reason I didn't catch it is that I normally don't look too
hard before the first 30 minutes of trading, but yes that 9:30 TLB was a valid
signal. I don't normally like to trade in the morning
Question: What was your
target on the last trade?
Answer: It was 1.2
today. In reality, in all those trades, I would have been out at 1.2. I was just
indicating how far the trade actually ran.
Question: If your stop
is above the entry bar or recent high, and is greater than a certain number of
ticks you will not take the trade?
Answer: In these
trades, the TLB-100, you rarely take any heat if they are good. I will usually
put the stop above the entry bar or 4-5 ticks away from my entry. If I had to
use a 10-12 tick stop, I would pass on the trade. This 2 to 1 ratio is very
important in terms of winning dollars versus losing dollars
Question: Once you
enter the TLB or ZLR and the CCI goes flat or reverses do you continue to hold
the 5 tick stop or whatever your original stop was?
Answer: If the CCI
hooks on me at the zero line, or the CCI goes flat for 2 or 3 bars I will exit
because the momentum has stopped going for me.
Question: Will you
comment on the shape of ZLRs - some good, some not so good? How about the ZLRs
at 12:24 and 13:07 on the ER chart?
Answer: I
don't know
if I took them not. .I don't like them. Instead of making a nice V they kind of
went flat. I tend not to take ZLRs unless they point down immediately for me
Question: With a ZLR do
you have to cross the zero line after the reversal before entering?
Answer: No. I will
take a ZLR and any ZLR hook. I like it to be at least +/- 50 so we have a little
room to run.
Question: Do you take
trades other than the ZLR and the TLB-100?
Answers: The vast
majority of my trading is 2 trades -- The TLB-100 and the ZLR with the trend.
However, I will take counter trend trades; the ghost for example if it is more
than 20 ticks away from the 34 ema and there are
ghosts and
VTs which occur
with the 34 trend and since they are trend trades to me, I will also take
those. In fact we had a couple of those today.
Question: Is this
correct? (Floodgate): GB, are these your
basic trend line rules: 1) Trade only with the trend of the 34 EMA and
with a slope of at least 30 degrees, 2) Trend must extend from the +/- 100
to the +/- 100 minimum, and 3) the TLB must be executed no later than the end
of the 6th bar, any others?
Answer: Anyone who
wants to look at Floodgates 17:13 post - that's it. You might want to add one
thing; that it has to come back across the 2nd 100 line and cross the
trend line
Question: Do you draw
trend lines on the turbo?
Answer: I
don't draw
trend lines on the turbo. I use them with CCI only.
Question: How do you
draw a trend line on a 1 bar move?
Answer: You draw your
trend line from the -100 point on CCI to +100. It only moved one bar, but it met
the conditions of moving from -100 to +100 even though it was within only 1
bar. In this instance it looks just like the CCI line
Question: Are there a
minimum number of touches for the trend line?
Answer: Really one
touch after the point of origin. You have a beginning point at the last print
below -100 or above +100 and after that 1st point, then you need
another point to draw the line, so you need a total of 2 touches at least to
draw the trend line
Question: Does the
TLB-100 work as well on daily charts?
Answer: Yes, on the
daily charts, the TLB-100 works just as well as it does on a 3 min Chart. Same
terminology. I love to see a TLB for an option trade
Question: What other
contracts and time frames do you like to use this set up on?
Answer: I use it on
everything. Today, we used it on the ER, the euro, and the YM. I think the YM
didn't work as well as it only had one TLB-100 today. By the way, there are days
where you are watching 3 or 4 contracts and you will only see one or two of
these the entire day. That usually means it is a choppy day. Today we I think we
had 9 or 10 and if you have 9 or 10 of these trades with a 90%
win rate, then you have had a very good day. Between Paul's moderating and
the way the markets acted today, I hope you all had a very good day. Today was a
trader's paradise.
Question: Do you have a
higher level of confidence in the TLB trades than you do with regular ZLRs?
Answer: I lump the
TLB-100s and ZLRs together when I do my data base. There are people like Hotcomm-Ed
who separate them for analysis purposes. They insist that they run close to 90%
successful trades. My own observation is that they probably are close to 90%.
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as long as they are done with the 34 ema trend.
Question: Do you have a
win percent stat on this?
Answer: I
don't keep
that data separately myself. Hotcomm-Ed does keep this data and says the win
rate is close to 90%. That would also be my observation. I think it would be
close to 90%.
Question: Did you short
all of the trades you discussed today?
Answer: Yes! I
shorted them all.
Question: What is the
indicator at the bottom of the chart?
Answer: The indicator
at the bottom of the screen is essentially the turbo. I have modified it
slightly --- I have smoothed it a little bit. Just call it the turbo It looks a
little different from yours, but it will hit the peaks up and down at the same
time as yours does.
Question: What do you
use the bottom turbo for?
Answer: I use it
only as an early warning; it has no bearing on my entries. It is there and when
it peaks out I really look at the CCI-14. The CCI-14 is my decision basis. I
don't care too much what the turbo is doing but I do get a level of
comfort if the turbo is also telling me to sell at the same time the CCI-14
does
Question: What is the
blue line in the chart below the CCI indicator?
Answer: That is my
version of the turbo. For the purpose of the charts that most people will be
looking at they would be using the turbo. It is just used as an early warning.
That is all that it is used for.
Question: What is the
time frame of the ER chart?
Answer: 3 Minutes
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Questions and Answers
on General Trading and Charting Questions
Question: When do you
enter a trade?
Answer: I usually
enter the trade 15 to 30 seconds before the bar closes. I do not recommend
that for newer traders. Wait for the bar close, because you can get hurt on
those
Question: Do you wait
for the bar to close to take the trade?
Answer: I try to wait
for the bar close to enter, but I guess I am kind of aggressive and I don't
always wait. It is not unusual for me to go in 20-30 seconds before the bar
closes.
Question: Do you choose
the market to trade based on the direction of the 34 ema?
Answer: You better
believe it. That is why I have 4 charts up. If one chart has a flat 34 and
one has a 34 ema with a nice trend. I am going to trade the one with a good
trend. That is why I use 4 charts up during the day. I want to be able to trade
during the day, but I want to trade a market that is trending
Question: How often do
you miss an entry by putting in a limit entry that is several ticks above the
current price (assuming a short position)?
Answer: Quite often.
I really don't care. I know that during the course of the day that I am always
looking at 4 products and I know that I will get 10 or 15 trades most days,
looking at those 4 products, that meet my criteria. I really don't care if
3 or 4 or 5 get away from me. That is more than enough trading for me. I will
get 4-6 trades per day per product. That is all I care about. I don't care
about the ones I miss. I only care about the ones I take. What I really care
about is that 2:1 dollar win vs. dollar loss ratio. I am very
adamant about that and very adamant about having a high win rate. If you have a
high win rate and a high dollar win to dollar loss ratio, you are going to do
fine regardless of how bad you screw up during the day.
Question: If you get
an entry signal in a logical place but the stop loss is too far away, can't you
place your limit order where it also gives you the logical stop loss?
Answer: Yes. That is
what I do. I put in my limit order at a place where the stop loss is acceptable
to me and sometimes I get filled and sometime I don't get filled. I don't care.
If I get filled, I want it on my conditions that I am going to have a stop that
gives me a potential win of $2.00 and a potential loss of $1.00. That is
absolutely right.
Question: As the trade
moves in your favor, do you move your stops to the high or low of the previous
bar?
Answer: Generally No.
If I do that, I will get stopped out prematurely and I won't get my 2:1 dollar
win to dollar loss ratio. Once I have my stop in at 4 or 5 ticks, then only one
of two things is going to happen. Either I am going to lose 4 or 5 ticks or I
am going to make 10 to 15 ticks. Those are the parameters I work in.
Question: If I had an
entry that required too large a stop, couldn't I use a limit order at a level
where the stop loss risk was acceptable or follow through on it if I get filled
- depending on the CCI?
Answer: My answer is
NO. I don't believe in putting in an arbitrary stop number. If I can't find a
logical place to place a stop, then I don't want that trade. For me personally,
just saying I am going to use 5 tick stops on everything today, is bad trading.
As I see it, I want a reasonable, logical place to put my stop. In other words,
I want my stop at some point where the market actually has to change
directions, even for only a short period of time, before I am stopped out.
Question: Can you
explain how to keep your stop loss to .30 to .50?
Answer: If I get a
signal on CCI to buy or sell and the closing bar or entry requires me to have a
large stop, say 12 or 13 tricks; then I will not take the trade. What I will do
is figure out what my logical stop will be... Say, quite often on a bar that is
a short, it is usually the high of the bar that triggered. What I will do is put
in a limit order to sell but that limit order will be about 50 cents from where
I am going to put my stop. What that means is that I will miss a lot of trades,
that is OK because I know that I will get as many trades as I want during the
day. If I can't have a trade that limits me to a 5 tick risk, then they can keep
the trade, since I don't want it. It is a very simple philosophy.
Question: When the 34
is at a very steep run, you may not get a pull back until the run is over. What
do you do when the 34 is very steep?
Answer: That is a good
question and something we have not taught in this room. If it is apparent that
we have a large trend going on I will do one of two things. I will break my stop
rule and take a bigger stop OR I will wait for a pull back to the previous bar,
say at some point where I can put in a reasonable stop of say, 6-7 ticks. I
don't want to suggest that to new traders. That is something you learn after
you have traded for a long time. That is where trading experience comes in. At
that point, it is not CCI; it is not the 34 ema; it is not the lsma. It is just
a lot of years of practice to know when you can sell a pull back without any
signal what so ever.
Question: Can you
describe the criteria behind your regular ZLR trades? Mine keep turning into
shamus.
Answer: If you have
the Sidewinder and use that, you will improve your win rate and keep from
getting caught in shamus. I don't know if you have the Sidewinder yet or not. It
does work.
Question: Will you
explain your rule for 34 'Kiss and Retreat'?
Answer: If price
gets to the 34 and runs away from it - buy it or sell it depending on the trend
direction of the 34. I don't try to encourage new traders to do that. You will
see me do that, but I don't recommend it for newer traders.
Question: Can you tell
me which euro chart you use
Answer: I use a 24
hour euro trade because the euro is trading most of the night. The chart today
was beautiful with many good trades today.
Comment: On the euro
you need to be on 24 hr time template and run it around the clock because your
trades start around 2:00 in the morning and it's real trading so you need a 24
hr chart to pick up all those signals
Question: Is there a
way to gauge the strength of the run?
Answer: No there
really isn't that I know of. I get out when it hits my objective or when I get a
CCI signal to exit. There is no way I have ever figured out how to tell what the
strength of the run is.
Question: What are the
other products that you trade?
Answer: I will trade
almost anything; recently, that has been the YM, the Euro, the ER and the Bonds.
Those are the 4 contracts I have been trading most this week.
Question: Do you use
only 1 chart per product?
Answer: Yes, I use
only one chart per product. My trading charts are quite large LCDs. I have the
charts overlaid so I can look at ½ screen or expand it to a full screen.
Question: What do you
think of tick charts?
Answer: There are
only a finite number of moves in the market each day. The type of charts that
you use will not change that number of moves. There will only be so many moves
during the day. I personally don't think it makes a bit of difference what you
use.
Question: What time
period charts do you trade?
Answer: I trade 3
minute charts on all products except the YM where I use 5 minutes
Question: Do you
suggest any further filters for a possible choppy day?
Answer: Quite
honestly I prefer not to trade on choppy days. If I don't have a trend on the 34,
I am content to walk away. Scalping works, and I used to do it, but I just don't
like to do it any more. If I don't get a trend, I will go do something else.
Question: What time
templates do you use on your charts?
Answer: I use 8:20
to 1615 for time on the YM, On the ER I don't start until 9:30. I use the 8:20
start time for the YM because that is when the pit opens. That is not same
situation for the ER
Question: Where can we
get the CCI rules?
Answer: Go the
www.woodiescciclub.com and you will find a lot of material there.
***********************
Disclaimer:
This presentation and the transcription are ONLY for educational purposes.
Nothing said or written is to be construed as investment advice. Trading is a
high risk activity and anyone entertaining this activity is advised to seek the
counsel of his or her personal financial advisor. Under no circumstances is any
content of this report, in whole or in part, to be considered investment advice.
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